WHITHER MAYOR DELE OSINOWO? HOUSE OF REPS OR HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY?

By Olusegun Apena

Mayor Dele Osinowo, the award-winning former chairman of Agboyi/Ketu LCDA, who left office in 2025 with a reputation as a “project chairman,” is reportedly weighing his next political move. The question on the lips of Kosofe APC stakeholders and political watchers is whether he will vie for the House of Representatives or settle for the House of Assembly?

Two whispers are making the rounds. One says Osinowo has decided to challenge Hon. Kafilat Ogbara, the incumbent representing Kosofe Federal Constituency in Abuja. The other says he has changed his mind and will instead target Kosofe Constituency II in the Lagos House of Assembly, currently occupied by Hon. Femi Saheed.

Both options are politically logical. Both are also politically risky — but in very different ways.

The House of Reps Option: Ogbara as the Hard Nut

If Osinowo chooses the federal ticket, he walks into the most difficult primary in Kosofe. Hon. Kafilat Ogbara is not a weak incumbent. She is a first-termer with the full weight of incumbency, access to federal resources, and - importantly - the gender factor.

In today’s APC, especially in Lagos, women incumbents are protected species. The party is sensitive to optics, and “removing a woman for a man” is a narrative the leadership avoids unless the woman is politically dead. Ogbara is not. She has kept her base, maintained party relationships, and projects the image of a loyal party woman.

More importantly, the “automatic ticket” culture — though publicly denied — operates behind the scenes. APC State Chairman Cornelius Ojelabi has said there is “no anointed candidate,” but party insiders know that first-term federal lawmakers who do not offend the structure are rarely disturbed. Ogbara has not offended the structure.

For Osinowo, this means a primary against Ogbara would be an uphill battle. He would need to outspend, out-organise, and out-lobby a sitting member of the House of Representatives who also has the gender advantage. That is a tall order, even for a former council chairman with grassroots appeal.

The House of Assembly Option: Saheed as the Easier Target

The second option - Kosofe Constituency II, Lagos House of Assembly — looks more winnable.

Hon. Femi Saheed, who came in through a 2020 bye-election to replace the late Tunde Buraimoh, is chairman of the House Committee on Finance and was the lawmaker who moved the motion for the impeachment of former Speaker Mudashiru Obasa. In Alausa, that gives him weight. In the constituency, it gives him less.

Saheed’s record in five years is modest: three roads, streetlights in parts of Ikosi-Isheri, seasonal empowerment programmes. He has no major bill to his name and is generally described as “quiet” and “loyal” rather than “visible” or “impactful.” He has not failed, but he has not inspired either.

Against such a profile, Osinowo would be a formidable opponent. He governed Agboyi-Ketu for two terms and left with a tangible record: over 30 roads, school renovations, health centre upgrades, free GCE forms, vocational training with equipment. People remember his tenure. In a primary, he can campaign on “I have done it before, I can do it again.” Saheed, by contrast, would be defending a thin record.

In short, if Osinowo faces Saheed, he finds an easy political prey to devour. If he faces Ogbara, he finds a hard nut to crack.

The Calculation

Politics is about probability. Osinowo knows the terrain. He knows Ogbara’s advantages are structural - gender, incumbency, quiet backing from the party hierarchy. He also knows Saheed’s advantages are institutional - committee chair, ranking status — but not electoral. On the ground, Osinowo’s name still resonates in Agboyi-Ketu, Alapere, Ajelogo, the very wards that make up Constituency II.

The House of Assembly seat also allows him to stay close to the grassroots, rebuild a base, and position himself for a future federal run without burning bridges now. The House of Reps seat offers immediate elevation, but carries the risk of a bruising, and possibly losing, primary that could damage his political capital.

Conclusion: The Smart Bet

Whither Mayor Dele Osinowo? The smart money says House of Assembly.

Not because he cannot contest for House of Reps, but because the path to victory is clearer, the opponent is more beatable, and the risk is lower. Ogbara has the edge, and the gender factor plus the unspoken “automatic ticket” principle makes her difficult to dislodge. Saheed, despite his position in the House, has not entrenched himself enough to scare away a challenger with Osinowo’s record.

Unless Osinowo has assurances from the very top that the federal ticket is open, Kosofe Constituency II is the logical battlefield. It is where his LCDA scorecard matters most, where his grassroots structure is strongest, and where the incumbent is vulnerable.

The mayor is weighing his options. In Kosofe politics, the option that wins primaries is usually the one that looks easiest on paper. Right now, that is not Kafilat Ogbara. It is Femi Saheed.